One Million Cases of Dememtia per Year by 2060!

There's a new study projecting that, by the year 2060, we will be getting a million new cases of dementia each year.  The researchers conducting the study calculated that adults over the age of 55 have a 42 percent average risk of developing dementia within their lifetime.  Past studies had put the risk at up to 14 percent for men and up to 23 percent for women.  That's a huge jump!

Why will that be happening?  Well, baby boomers will be getting older, but here is my editorial opinion: Only approximately 20% of US adults are meeting recommended lifestyle and cardiovascular health targets.  And cardiovascular health targets are Alzheimer's disease prevention targets!  You know -- eat right, get enough exercise, don't smoke, address hearing loss.  That kind of stuff.  When people don't hit their targets, the incidence of Alzheimer's disease goes up.  And up.

In Beating the Dementia Monster, we discussed what seemed to be an emerging trend of declining cases of dementia.  This was believed to be a consequence of significant advances in steps to improve cardiovascular health and prevent heart attacks.  But according to this new research published in the journal Nature Medicine, that's not what we're anticipating any more.  (If that link doesn't work for you, here's an article from Smithsonian Magazine with a link in it that should work.)

The researcher's hailed from some of the most prestigious institutions studying dementia in the United States.  They drew their data from a large, earlier study of heart disease that provided health and lifestyle data for about 15,000 subjects, "The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study."  Data went back to 1987.  The new dementia study included the following statements: "The lifetime risk of dementia after age 55 years was 42% ...  Rates were substantially higher in women, black adults and APOE ε4 carriers, with lifetime risks ranging from approximately 45% to 60% in these populations.  The number of US adults who will develop dementia each year was projected to increase from approximately 514,000 in 2020 to approximately 1 million in 2060.  The relative growth in new dementia cases was especially pronounced for black adults."

And, "[M]ore than four in 10 adults developed dementia in this large, longstanding, community-based cohort study, with higher rates in APOE ε4 carriers, women, and black adults.  Approximately 1 million US adults will develop dementia annually by 2060.  Policies that enhance prevention and healthy aging are urgent public health priorities for reducing the substantial and growing burden of dementia."  Yep.